Advance retail sales - testing the rebound
Advance retail sales last stood at 752,063 million dollars in 2026-03, after 739,772 in 2026-02 and 734,503 in 2026-01, per FRED's RSAFS series fred.stlouisfed.org and the Census Bureau's release page census.gov. The part that matters for this event is whether that late rebound was broad or just nominal. Ex-autos accelerated to 1.89967 percent month over month in 2026-03 from 0.74683 in 2026-02, while real retail sales on the RRSFS series reached 227,696 after 225,912 and 224,902fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org). That makes a clean beat one where the headline is backed by ex-autos and real sales, not just price mix, especially with CPI running 3.77925 percent year over year in 2026-04 fred.stlouisfed.org. The setup reads less like a consumer-crack check and more like a durability test of the late-sample run-rate. A print above that recent RSAFS and RSXFS pace would likely reinforce the resilient-demand read; a softer one could shift attention back to pull-forward and downshift risk.
Advance retail sales last stood at 752,063 million dollars in 2026-03, after 739,772 in 2026-02 and 734,503 in 2026-01, per FRED's RSAFS series fred.stlouisfed.org and the Census Bureau's release page census.gov. The late trend was firmer than it looked at the turn of the year: RSAFS year over year improved to 3.96945 in 2026-03 from 3.26786 in 2026-01 fred.stlouisfed.org, ex-autos accelerated to 1.89967 percent month over month from 0.74683, and real retail sales on the RRSFS series climbed to 227,696 from 225,912 and 224,902fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org). That is the hit-miss frame here: a beat is not just a firmer headline, it is a print that still looks solid once autos and inflation noise are stripped out, especially with CPI running 3.77925 percent year over year in 2026-04 fred.stlouisfed.org. The setup reads less like a crisis check and more like a durability test of the late-sample rebound. A print above the recent RSAFS and RSXFS pace would likely reinforce the resilient-demand read; a softer one could reopen the view that 2026-03 was pull-forward, not clean carry.