Affordable housing: supply over yield

113.7 is the number under the return-is-not-money headline: the fixed-rate mortgage Housing Affordability Index on 2026-03-01, up from 104.2 on 2025-03-01, while the median US sales price was still 405300 on 2025-10-01 and the homeownership rate was 65.3 on 2026-01-01, per FREDfred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org). That is the desk read on why affordable-housing capital is being framed in social-return terms: affordability has improved a bit, but the market is still expensive enough that conventional financing may not be delivering all the supply the policy complex wants. The beat is more projects actually getting built: starts were 1272 on 2025-10-01 and 1502 on 2026-03-01, while permits were 1372 on 2026-03-01fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org). The miss is if those supply prints stall and the story stays niche. What could change the read from here is a firmer run in permits and starts than the recent 1372 permits and 1502 starts printsfred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org).