Existing home sales - range-bound turnover

Existing-home sales last printed 3.98m in 2026-03, back at the soft end of a recent 3.98m to 4.27m range, while inventory rose to 1.36m and months' supply reached 8.5 fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org. The release is framed less by momentum than by whether turnover can move back above 4.13m fred.stlouisfed.org even as mortgage rates remain below the 7.04% peak seen on 2025-01-16 but well above 6.12% on 2024-10-03 fred.stlouisfed.org.

Existing-home sales last printed 3.98m in 2026-03, after 4.13m in 2026-02 and against a recent run that has mostly stayed between 3.98m and 4.27m, so the clean read on this release is still a range-bound housing market rather than a breakout in turnover fred.stlouisfed.org. The cross-current is straightforward: inventory rebuilt to 1.36m in 2026-03 from 1.23m in 2025-12, and months' supply was 8.5 after touching 9.8 in 2026-01, which gives buyers more choice but also says demand has not absorbed supply cleanly yet fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org. Financing has eased from the 7.04% mortgage-rate peak on 2025-01-16, but borrowing costs are still materially above the 6.12% level seen on 2024-10-03, which helps explain why sales have struggled to hold above 4.13m for long fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org. A print above 4.13m or below 3.98m would change the read from sideways turnover to either demand finally responding or affordability still binding fred.stlouisfed.org.