FOMC — hold after core CPI 2.6% YoY

The April 28-29 FOMC is priced as a hold after March core CPI landed at 2.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both 0.1 point below consensus cnbc.com investopedia.com. Headline CPI still ran 3.3% YoY as gasoline jumped 21.2% MoM, so the tape is trading the energy shock more than the core miss cnbc.com wisdomtree.com. CME FedWatch has June at 7.1% for a cut and July at 18.1%, while Reuters says bond investors are leaning on curve steepeners for eventual easing phemex.com reuters.com. A print outside consensus could pull June or July back into view.

The April 28-29 FOMC is priced as a hold after March core CPI landed at 2.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both 0.1 point below consensus cnbc.com investopedia.com. The March minutes still showed two 25 bp cuts in 2026 federalreserve.gov. Headline CPI still ran 3.3% YoY as gasoline jumped 21.2% MoM, so the tape is trading the energy shock more than the core miss cnbc.com wisdomtree.com. CME FedWatch has June at 7.1% for a cut and July at 18.1%, while Reuters says bond investors are leaning on curve steepeners for eventual easing phemex.com reuters.com. The next CPI release lands May 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET bls.gov. A print outside consensus could pull June or July back into view; a hotter one would keep front-end cuts pushed out.