Global markets - oil and AI beta

Data through 2025-05-16 (SP500: fred.stlouisfed.org VIXCLS: fred.stlouisfed.org), and through 2025-04-30 (DCOILWTICO: fred.stlouisfed.org DCOILBRENTEU: fred.stlouisfed.org) for oil: WTI at 59.55 on 2025-04-30 fred.stlouisfed.org versus 73.79 on 2025-01-02 fred.stlouisfed.org is the cleanest sign the move is broader than a U.S. equity squeeze. Lower oil, a softer dollar at 122.3145 on 2025-04-21 fred.stlouisfed.org, and a 10-year yield at 4.01 on 2025-04-04 fred.stlouisfed.org say global disinflation, even as the S&P 500 recovered to 5958.38 on 2025-05-16 fred.stlouisfed.org and the equity leg is still being treated as AI beta. Scenario to watch: if VIX stops acting like 17.24 on 2025-05-16 fred.stlouisfed.org, the market will read the same oil move as growth stress, not relief.

Data through 2025-05-16 (SP500: fred.stlouisfed.org VIXCLS: fred.stlouisfed.org), through 2025-04-30 (DCOILWTICO: fred.stlouisfed.org DCOILBRENTEU: fred.stlouisfed.org) for oil, and through the cited dates otherwise: WTI crude at 59.55 on 2025-04-30 fred.stlouisfed.org versus 73.79 on 2025-01-02 fred.stlouisfed.org is the number that says this is broader than a U.S. stock story. The S&P 500 was back to 5958.38 on 2025-05-16 fred.stlouisfed.org after 5074.08 on 2025-04-04 fred.stlouisfed.org, but the same window also gave you Brent at 63.37 on 2025-04-30 fred.stlouisfed.org, the 10-year at 4.01 on 2025-04-04 fred.stlouisfed.org versus 4.57 on 2025-01-02 fred.stlouisfed.org, the broad dollar at 122.3145 on 2025-04-21 fred.stlouisfed.org versus 129.4598 on 2025-01-02 fred.stlouisfed.org, and HY spreads at 4.61 on 2025-04-07 fred.stlouisfed.org versus 2.88 on 2025-01-02 fred.stlouisfed.org. Translation: cheaper oil is doing global disinflation work, while the equity bounce is still being traded as AI beta, not a full macro all-clear. Scenario to watch: if volatility stops behaving like 17.24 on 2025-05-16 fred.stlouisfed.org and starts behaving more like 52.33 on 2025-04-08 fred.stlouisfed.org, the read changes from benign broadening to demand scare.