Iran says US strikes breached ceasefire, oil up

WTI crude was $105.70 on MarketWatch marketwatch.com after Iran called Monday’s U.S. strikes a ceasefire violation and warned Washington would bear responsibility for “all consequences,” according to the AP/Yahoo dispatch yahoo.com. That is the market tell: this is being priced first as an oil-and-inflation shock, not yet as a confirmed Strait of Hormuz outage. Reuters framed the move as Brent rising on the strikes and lifting inflation worries reuters.com, while the Washington Post reported the U.S. and Iran were still working toward a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen Hormuz washingtonpost.com; Reuters separately said no full Hormuz flows are due until the first half of 2027 reuters.com, which helps explain why crude is up without the tape fully jumping to a lasting supply-loss regime. The hit-miss frame is straightforward: if diplomacy holds, this stays in the bucket of escalation headline risk plus firmer energy; if talks slip, the market starts pulling toward the Wood Mackenzie tail where more than 11 million b/d of Gulf crude and condensate and over 80 million tonnes per annum of LNG stay at risk woodmac.com. If crude extends from $105.70 toward Wood Mackenzie’s US$200/bbl tail woodmac.com, rates and inflation pricing would have to treat this as more than a headline shock.