OBFR: watch 3.64%

OBFR last printed 3.64% on 2026-04-21, per FRED fred.stlouisfed.org, and the series has been moving in policy-rate steps rather than on its own. Given it sat at 4.33% from Dec 19, 2024 through Sep 17, 2025, then tracked each cut lower, another 3.63–3.64 print would read as routine pass-through; a clean move away from that range would put unsecured bank funding back on the tape.

OBFR last printed 3.64% on 2026-04-21, per FRED fred.stlouisfed.org, and the historical pattern suggests another mechanically quiet print as the base case. The series sat at 4.33% from Dec 19, 2024 through Sep 17, 2025, then stepped down with each Fed cut to 4.08–4.09 on Sep 18, 3.86–3.88 on Oct 30, 3.64–3.65 on Dec 11, and 3.63–3.64 in April 2026, which is why this release is usually treated as an administered-rate anchor rather than an early stress signal. The clean contrast is Sep 15, 2025: repo rates jumped and SOFR hit 4.51%, but Dallas Fed noted EFFR stayed at precisely 4.33 percent, underscoring how little unsecured bank funding budged even when secured markets were noisy dallasfed.org. That stability also fits the post-QT reserve-management setup the New York Fed described after runoff ended effective December 1 and reserve management purchases began as reserves approached ample newyorkfed.org. A print near 3.63–3.64 would be more of the same; a clean break outside that range would shift the conversation from policy pass-through to whether reserve conditions are finally leaking into unsecured funding.