Oil: Iran deal premium comes out

Brent was at $97.90 a barrel, down 5.5%, and U.S.-traded crude at $90.93, down 5.9%, as traders stripped out some geopolitical premium on reports Washington and Tehran were moving closer to a dealaol.com reuters.com). The market is trading the headline, not a finished settlement: President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran are “close to finalizing a peace deal” but that “there are still some questions” today.com. That is enough to compress the supply-risk premium that built around Hormuz, but not enough to declare the physical market clean again. Reuters’ key caveat is the one that matters for positioning: “physical oil flows” are still the watchpoint and “flows through the Strait remain restricted” reuters.com. So the hit for crude bears is faster diplomatic progress than the market had embedded; the miss is that barrels and transit are not fully normalized yet. If headline progress turns into restored flows, crude can reprice lower again; if talks stall while Strait restrictions persist, this drop stops looking like confirmation and starts looking like a fade.