Oil jump - the Iran risk premium

WTI's run from [$66.96 on Feb 27 to $90.77 on Mar 6]fred.stlouisfed.org is the key context for the headline that Trump dismissed an Iran proposal to end the war. Brent has confirmed the move, rising from [$71.32 to $95.74 over the same window]fred.stlouisfed.org. Price action is treating this as a supply-risk premium, not a growth trade: follow-through keeps the geopolitical bid alive, while a quick retrace would argue for a headline squeeze that fades.

WTI's run from [$66.96 on Feb 27 to $90.77 on Mar 6]fred.stlouisfed.org is the number that matters as the headline that Trump dismissed an Iran proposal to end the war hits a market that was already paying up for supply risk. Brent is saying the same thing, moving from [$71.32 to $95.74 over the same window]fred.stlouisfed.org. The clean trading frame is barrels at risk, not stronger demand: what beats here is follow-through in crude and products that says traders are adding a durable geopolitical premium, while what misses is a fast retrace that would suggest the headline mainly squeezed positioning rather than changed the physical balance. That distinction matters because oil at these levels can travel quickly into inflation pricing and the front end even when the rest of the macro tape is mixed. If crude can hold near these highs, the move could stay macro-relevant; if it slips back, this likely remains a headline premium rather than a broader regime shift.