Oil: lower, but still elevated

WTI crude was 99.89 on 2026-04-27 after peaking at 114.58 on 2026-04-07 and washing out to 85.91 on 2026-04-17, per FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Brent says the same thing more violently, from 138.21 on 2026-04-07 to 98.63 on 2026-04-17, then back to 113.89 on 2026-04-27: fred.stlouisfed.org So the cease-fire headline has clearly taken out the immediate squeeze, but not the embedded Middle East risk premium: this is a fade from panic highs, not a return to fully relaxed pricing. That is why the macro spillover has stayed sticky rather than vanished, with 10-year breakevens up from 2.31 on 2026-04-01 to 2.5 on 2026-05-04 fred.stlouisfed.org and the 10-year Treasury yield from 4.09 to 4.45 over the same dates fred.stlouisfed.org. The hit for de-escalation is crude holding much closer to the 85.91 and 98.63 washout than the 114.58 and 138.21 spike; the miss is any relapse that leaves traders re-pricing supply risk into inflation and rates again. If crude starts printing back through 85.91 and 98.63, the market would be signaling that de-escalation is sticking; if it re-tests 114.58 and 138.21, the cease-fire premium could be back on.