Oil, stocks: Iran risk unwind

65.45 was WTI's last verified cash print on 2025-06-24, per FRED fred.stlouisfed.org, and reports of a deal to end the Iran war appear to be extending that same risk-premium unwind into oil lower and equities higher today. The market setup suggests this is less about growth and more about stripping out the geopolitical barrel premium that built when supply disruption looked plausible. In that frame, the headline "beats" if crude keeps behaving like insurance is no longer needed and equities keep reading lower energy as a margin and inflation positive; it "misses" if the deal proves partial or unstable, because oil could reprice supply risk quickly and the equity bounce may look thin without a fresh macro catalyst. The key cross-check is whether crude trades more like the unwind from 75.89 on 2025-06-18 back toward 63.27 on 2025-06-02, also per FRED fred.stlouisfed.org, rather than snapping back. A sustained move toward 63.27 would suggest the deal is being treated as credible; a reversal back through 75.89 would change the read to renewed disruption pricing.