Trump-Powell feud: why markets aren't flinching

3.5% to 3.75% is still the number that matters in the BBC's fresh recap of Donald Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell, because markets have fully priced a hold at this meeting and Reuters is treating it as what could be Powell's last one in the chaircnbc.com reuters.com bbc.com). From a trading perspective, the insults matter less than the transmission channel: does political pressure alter the statement, the chair's posture, or the succession timeline. Right now the market answer is no. Powell's term as chair ends May 15 and he has said he will stay until a successor is confirmed usatoday.com, while the Senate Banking Committee is voting on Kevin Warsh on April 29 c-span.org. So the hit is a routine hold with no sign the feud is entering the reaction function; the miss is any shift in tone that suggests the political fight is bleeding into policy independence or accelerating the handoff. Anything other than a hold at 3.5% to 3.75%, or clearer guidance around May 15, could pull this out of background noise and into front-end and dollar repricing.