Trump-Xi visit: optics versus policy

DGS10 printed 4.45 on 2025-05-15 after 4.53 on 2025-05-14 fred.stlouisfed.org, as Trump left Beijing with both sides claiming “important progress” in stabilizing U.S.-China relations but no clean tariff, tech, or Taiwan deliverable on the tape yetapnews.com apnews.com). That is the market readthrough: marginal de-escalation, not a policy reset. T10Y2Y stayed positive at 0.49 on 2025-05-15 fred.stlouisfed.org, which fits a market that is not pricing a fresh China shock, but it also is not getting a concrete growth kicker from the visit. The hit case for risk is any follow-through that could turn summit language into tariff or tech relief; the miss case is that the visit remains optics while Trump still says he has not made a decision on a major Taiwan arms sale apnews.com. Traders can joke about the choreography, but the tape only cares whether this visit changes policy settings. What could change the tape from here is concrete movement on tariffs, export controls, or Taiwan.