UK CPI: why latte prices stay sticky

UK CPI was 2.8% in the 12 months to April 2026, with CPIH at 3.0%ons.gov.uk ons.gov.uk), and that is cool enough to take the edge off inflation without forcing cafés to cut ticket prices. The beat for anyone looking for genuine relief would be broader domestic disinflation; the miss is a softer headline driven by energy, because the BBC says April’s fall was largely due to the lower price cap and the next cap was expected to rise with wholesale costs bbc.com. Meanwhile, employer National Insurance moved to 15% from 13.8% from 6 April 2025 gov.uk, and coffee prices went from $1.11 in 2020 to $2.35 in 2024 and hit $3.30 in September 2025 cbi.eu. That makes the likelier path slower menu inflation, not cheaper lattes. A softer-than-priced inflation print would likely change that only if domestic costs and beans rolled over together.

UK CPI was 2.8% in the 12 months to April 2026, with CPIH at 3.0%ons.gov.uk ons.gov.uk), and that is the clean macro read-through for why the coffee ticket still looks sticky. The beat for consumers would be a downside surprise in the sticky domestic inputs that cafés actually pay; the miss is a lower headline number that comes mainly from volatile energy. The BBC says April’s slowdown was largely driven by the lower energy price cap, while the next cap was expected to rise with wholesale costs bbc.com. At the same time, employer National Insurance moved to 15% from 13.8% from 6 April 2025 gov.uk, and coffee prices ran from $1.11 in 2020 to $2.35 in 2024 and reached $3.30 in September 2025 cbi.eu. Put differently, the headline can cool while labour-heavy, import-heavy café economics stay tight, so the likelier path is slower menu inflation, not cheaper lattes. A softer-than-priced inflation print would likely matter only if broader domestic cost pressure eased at the same time as bean prices.