UK fuel prices: crude pass-through

UK petrol hit 158.5p/litre and diesel 185.9p/litre on 19 May, the highest since the war began, according to BBC reporting on RAC data bbc.com. The trading point is that this still looks like upstream cost pass-through, not retailer margin expansion: the CMA says the rapid increase has been driven mainly by higher oil prices and that retailer fuel margins were broadly unchanged in March gov.uk. RAC projects unleaded could rise to at least 160p/litre in the coming weeks unless there is a dramatic and sustained drop in oil prices bbc.com, but the fiscal cushion is still there, with the government saying its duty cut has saved the average driver £120 since 2025 and keeps duty at its lowest rate for over 16 years gov.uk. A faster move higher would lift the CPI pass-through story; a stall would say crude relief is finally reaching the pump.

UK petrol hit 158.5p/litre and diesel 185.9p/litre on 19 May, the highest since the war began, according to BBC reporting on RAC data bbc.com. The important distinction for markets is that this is being framed as crude pass-through rather than a fresh forecourt pricing story: the CMA says the rapid increase in fuel prices has been driven by wider cost pressures, in particular higher oil prices, and that retailer margins were broadly unchanged in March gov.uk. That matters because it points the inflation impulse back upstream. ONS has already flagged an upward contribution from motor fuel prices in the latest CPI release, even as headline CPI slowed. RAC projects unleaded could rise to at least 160p/litre in the coming weeks unless there is a dramatic and sustained drop in oil prices, although current forecourt prices remain below the summer 2022 peaks of 191.5p/litre for petrol and 199p/litre for diesel bbc.com. The policy buffer is unchanged: the government says the duty cut has saved the average driver £120 since 2025 and keeps duty at its lowest rate for over 16 years gov.uk. If pump prices keep climbing, the change is a cleaner CPI pass-through risk; if they stall, the signal is that crude relief and tax cushioning are finally getting through.