US debt/GDP: back in focus

US gross federal debt was 122.56815% of GDP in 2025 Q4, up from 115.58614% in 2023 Q1 and still below the 132.66287% spike in 2020 Q2, per FRED fred.stlouisfed.org. The beat-miss frame is straightforward: a high ratio is tolerable if nominal GDP grows faster than the debt stock, but the latest mix still shows debt outrunning output, with gross federal debt rising from 31458438 in 2023 Q1 to 38514009 in 2025 Q4 fred.stlouisfed.org while GDP rose from 27216.445 to 31422.526 over the same window fred.stlouisfed.org. The market is priced to care because the carry is no longer cheap: federal interest outlays were 3.15344% of GDP in 2025 versus 1.61621% in 2020 fred.stlouisfed.org, and the fiscal balance was -5.76906% of GDP in 2025 after -6.19625% in 2024 fred.stlouisfed.org. That keeps the focus on supply and term premium when the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.30% on 2026-04-24 fred.stlouisfed.org. A print above 122.56815% would harden the fiscal-premium read; a lower print would say GDP is finally doing more of the adjustment.